UCLA Study: Global Warming Could Cause 1,000-Year Drought

Current environmental conditions mirror ancient conditions that caused prehistoric droughts. Juan Fernandez reports.

Throughout this video I say “probability curve” when a statistician would say “probability distribution.” I just want to say that I’m aware of this, and that it’s a choice I intentionally made because I felt like it made it easier to understand.

While I would very much like to get deep into probability functions, what they mean, and how they work, I don’t know if that’s necessary to understand the world with curves. And this isn’t just about climate and weather, pretty much everything is better understood if it’s understood in terms of probability functions. And I generally like to see the world not for the collapsed reality dot, but for the function underneath. It’s why winning at gambling always feels empty to me, I know that the underlying function has my losing even if happened to get lucky. So, in a way, gambling is always losing, even if you win.

I know I’m an armchair statistician, and that lots of people will be annoyed by the language in this video, but I hope you can forgive me!

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Crash Course Film: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TARsoxST0tQ

Healthcare Triage on Guns: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZzmgqpwG-s (four parts)

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23 thoughts on “UCLA Study: Global Warming Could Cause 1,000-Year Drought”

  1. WE WANT OUR REAL WEATHER BACK

    IMPEACH & JAIL THE WEATHER STEALING OBAMA MINIONS

    DEFUND THE GEOENGINEERING OF EARTHS CLIMATE NOW

    Reply
  2. Please research Geoengineering and solar radiation management.

    These processes may likely be the cause of the drought. And WHY do all the rain systems suddenly go around California? How could their be a fixed high pressure done above the state? Impossible.

    Reply
  3. Hey Folks! I'm taking on a 180 day challenge and not buying anything for 180 days! For those that want people to see how to connect our consumerism with global warming, I am looking to interview and ask questions about the environment on everything global warming. 🙂

    Reply
  4. Average people are too dumb to comprehend what "probabilities" and "trends" are. I know many people who have no idea how to calculate percentages, or what that even means. I find that frightening.

    Reply
  5. You are so true everyone gets it wrong even you. Global warming it's about one thing only it's about were the Kingdom of Jesus will be place. Whoever wrote the bible was nationalist that why they said the kingdom of Jesus would be in Israel, but geographically it's wrong, because North Pole it's the top of the world, God always live to the top. All blessing should come from the North, North only!

    Reply
  6. The jet/rocket engine is the greatest threat to the earths atmosphere with regards to the ozone depletion and to global warming and yet everyone chooses to ignore this fact. Something MUST BE DONE about this grave danger to the planet. There are five thousand jets in the air at any given moment. This is when there are the LEAST number of jets in the atmosphere. The total number of jets in the atmosphere can reach as high as twenty three thousand jets in the atmosphere at the same time. The exhaust temperature of most jet engines is at five hundred degrees. A stove boils water at three to five hundred degrees and eventually all of the water in a pot will evaporate. The density of water in comparison to the atmosphere level where most jets travel is much less thinner and yet the temperature level where the atmosphere is thinnest there is a minimum of five thousand jet engines are depleting the atmosphere at this very moment. When the peak amount of jet and rocket are added into the atmosphere – what do people think will happen?

    Reply
  7. THANK YOU SO MUCH! Thank you for sciencing and mathing global warming in a relatively concise way!
    Hopefully this gets through to people who keep insisting that it being cold in Canada during the winter somehow means this climate shift isnt happening. Just look at the evidence people; and the curve is the evidence!

    Reply
  8. I don't understand, from what you said about curves, why wetter, stronger storms will occur in the worst places. Why? Isn't it more likely that humans will be increasingly affected by bad storms because we are continually expanding our living areas across the globe as well as increasingly and stupidly allowing construction of homes in known dangerous places like flood plains?

    Reply
  9. Hey i got a question if earths magnetic feild is in decline wouldnt that mean it is also getting smaller in size, so if you were to place super sized electromagmets all over earth would it help any? I mean the snow caps are around where the north and south pole are…. of course they need clean energy i guess wouldnt more sun mean supercharging co2 emissions

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  10. Stop, stop your never ending babble. TELL people about how the basic physics behind the theory works for God's sake. Full spectrum light travels through our atmosphere, strikes the earth`s surface which heats it up. The earth reratiates the heat in the form of infrared light. CO2 is a poor conductor of infrared light which causes the heat to be trapped in our atmosphere. Stop all the damned shouting and start explaining.

    Reply
  11. What was his freaking point exactly? Am I supposed to drive an electric car or something? I have no idea what he just said, and I have a PhD in statistics.

    Reply
  12. my understanding from a research paper is that global warming should reduce the number of hurricanes yet increase the severity of those that do occur.  i.e. shift the curve left, not right.

    Reply
  13. Dr. Ottmar Endenhofer, co-chair of UN IPCC Working Group 3, on November 11, 2010 stated:
    "We (UN-IPCC) redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy…One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore."
    The agenda of the UN as well as that of the global “Climate Change” groups is literally admitted to be socialist wealth redistribution.

    Interview by: Bernard Potter
    NZZ am Sonntag: Mr. Eden, everybody concerned with climate protection demands emissions reductions. You now speak of “dangerous emissions reduction.” What do you mean?
    Ottmar Edenhofer: So far economic growth has gone hand in hand with the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. One percent growth means one percent more emissions. The historic memory of mankind remembers: In order to get rich one has to burn coal, oil or gas. And therefore, the emerging economies fear CO2 emission limits.
    But everybody should take part in climate protection, otherwise it does not work.
    That is so easy to say. But particularly the industrialized countries have a system that relies almost exclusively on fossil fuels. There is no historical precedent and no region in the world that has decoupled its economic growth from emissions. Thus, you cannot expect that India or China will regard CO2 emissions reduction as a great idea. And it gets worse: We are in the midst of a renaissance of coal, because oil and gas (sic) have become more expensive, but coal has not. The emerging markets are building their cities and power plants for the next 70 years, as if there would be permanently no high CO 2 price.
    The new thing about your proposal for a Global Deal is the stress on the importance of development policy for climate policy. Until now, many think of aid when they hear development policies.
    That will change immediately if global emission rights are distributed. If this happens, on a per capita basis, then Africa will be the big winner, and huge amounts of money will flow there. This will have enormous implications for development policy. And it will raise the question if these countries can deal responsibly with so much money at all.
    That does not sound anymore like the climate policy that we know.
    Basically it’s a big mistake to discuss climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization. The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War. Why? Because we have 11,000 gigatons of carbon in the coal reserves in the soil under our feet – and we must emit only 400 gigatons in the atmosphere if we want to keep the 2-degree target. 11 000 to 400 – there is no getting around the fact that most of the fossil reserves must remain in the soil.
    De facto, this means an expropriation of the countries with natural resources. This leads to a very different development from that which has been triggered by development policy.
    First of all, developed countries have basically expropriated the atmosphere of the world community. But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy. Obviously, the owners of coal and oil will not be enthusiastic about this. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore, with problems such as deforestation or the ozone hole.
    Nevertheless, the environment is suffering from climate change – especially in the global south.
    It will be a lot to do with adaptation. But that just goes far beyond traditional development policy: We will see in Africa with climate change a decline in agricultural yields. But this can be avoided if the efficiency of production is increased – and especially if the African agricultural trade is embedded in the global economy. But for that we need to see that successful climate policy requires other global trade and financial policies.
    wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/18/ipcc-official-%e2%80%9cclimate-policy-is-redistributing-the-worlds-wealth%e2%80%9d/
    Suck on that for a while and then try to deny it, you guilt ridden SJW asshats.

    Reply
  14. I'm proud to have your video saved to a word document and a brief explaination as copypasta for whenever the climate change skeptics come out of the woodwork

    Reply
  15. Waiting for people to realize that eating more meat causes more climate change than all the world's oil rigs and fossil fuels combined

    Reply

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