28 – The consequences of climate change (in our lifetimes)

SOURCES:

1:48 “Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland”
Ola M. Johannessen et al, Science November 2005

2:10 “Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations” — S. B. Luthcke, et al., Science November 2006

2:12 “Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet” —
J. L. Chen, et al., Science 2006

3:19 “Satellite gravity measurements confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheet” J. Chen et al., Science, 2006
3:22 “Recent Greenland Ice Mass Loss by Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations” — Luthcke et al, Science, 2006
3:24 “Lower estimates of Antarctic sea level contribution from satellite gravimetry” King et al, Nature 2012

3:26 Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling” — Rignot et al, 2008

3:28 “Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE”

3:30 “A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance”
Shepherd et al Science 2012

4:01 “Recent Contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise from GRACE”
4:24 “Toward prediction of environmental Arctic change”
W Maslowski, JC Kinney, J Jakacki – Computing in Science 2007
5:25 “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise” — WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008
5:40 “Global sea level linked to global temperature” —
Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009

6:10 Table adapted from “Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes”
— R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008

8:02 “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise” — WT Pfeffer et al., Science 2008

8:57 “Climate: Observations, projections and Impacts” — Met Office 2013.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/science/uk/obs-projections-impacts

10:05 “Precipitation and its extremes in changed climates”
— T. Schneider and P. A. O’Gorman, Journal of Climate 2008
11:30 “Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios” — Parry et al, Global Environmental Change 2004
11:52 “Threats to Water Supplies in the Tropical Andes” Bradley et al., Science 2006

11:55 “Evidence for Upwelling of Corrosive “Acidified” Water onto the Continental Shelf” — Richard A. Feely, Science 2008

12:01 “Coral Reefs: Present Problems and Future Concerns Resulting from Anthropogenic Disturbance” — RH Richmond, American Zoologist 1993

12:06 “Global Warming and Coastal Erosion” — Zhang et al., Climatic Change
12: 08 “Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models” — Cramer et al., Global Change Biology 2001
12:25 “The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications” — Goldenberg, Science 2001
12:34 “A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents”
Petoukhov, V., and V. A. Semenov,
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, Nov 2010

14:08 I backtracked this new “CAGW” label, and it seems to have started with author Michael Crichton in 2007, but was popularized in 2010 with an opinion piece in the Washington Post.

14:42 Table adapted from “Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes”
— R. J. Nicholls et al., OECD 2008

15:07 “Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries”
Anne B. Hollowed

15:12 “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” — UK Government report, 2006

17:47 Someone queried my statement “the amount we’ve spent on developing the world’s first nuclear fusion reactor is barely 2/3 the cost of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.”
I don’t have my notes with me so I can’t give you my source for the billion. So let’s look at a couple of other ratios.
According to the website of ITER (the Experimental Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), if all the manufacturing is done in Europe the estimated cost of building ITER, supported by the United States, the European Union, India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, has been estimated at approximately .4 billion (at April 2016 exchange rates.) That’s around a third the estimated cost of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico ( billion).” (SOURCE: http://www.iter.org/faq#Do_we_really_know_how_much_ITER_will_cost) “Based on the European evaluation, we can estimate the cost of ITER construction for the seven members at approximately EUR 13 billion, if all the manufacturing is done in Europe.” )
Or, looking at it another way, the cost of building the National Ignition Facility — a key research project into nuclear fusion — was less that 10% of the cost of the BP oil spill.

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explains the causes and consequences of climate change and what can be done to combat it.

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